Confirming that the Pacific Ocean has now transitioned to El Niño mode, US govt weather agencies have warned that it could intensify into one of the strongest events in history, deeply impacting weather across the world.The update released late Thursday by Climate Prediction Center and other agencies under US’ National Ocean and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) gave a 63% chance of the El Niño strengthening into a “very strong” event by Nov-Jan “that would rank among the largest El Niño events in the historical record going back to 1950”.This is a sharp increase in odds in favour of a “very strong” event — popularly termed ‘super El Niño’ — since CPC’s previous bulletin on May 14, which had put this probability at 37%.As reported by TOI on June 5, European weather agency ECMWF had already indicated last week that El Niño had commenced. ECMWF forecasts also project that it is likely to develop into an unprecedentedly strong ‘super’ El Niño by Nov-Dec this year.El Niño is the name given to abnormal heating of ocean surface waters in central and eastern equatorial Pacific which occurs in conjunction with, or precedes, shifts in wind patterns. These changes influence global weather in a major way, including having adverse impact on India’s summer monsoon.A strong El Niño is bad news for India’s monsoon as the phenomenon increases the chances of the event impacting planetary weather. “Even very strong El Niño events do not lead to the expected impact everywhere but stronger events can more significantly tilt the odds in favour of expected outcomes,” the Climate Prediction Center noted in its update.
