NEW DELHI: As Kerala awaits election results on Monday, the bigger political question may not be whether the BJP can win power in the state, but whether it has begun to disrupt Kerala’s long-standing two-front system. For decades, politics in the state has remained firmly bipolar, with power alternating between the CPM-led Left Democratic Front (LDF) and the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF). In the 140-member assembly, tightly managed vote transfers, strong cadre networks and local caste-community equations left little room for a third force to emerge.But recent elections suggest BJP is slowly carving out political space in pockets of the state. Its first Lok Sabha victory in Thrissur in 2024, rising vote share, gains in local body polls and growing presence in urban constituencies such as Thiruvananthapuram and Palakkad have signalled a gradual shift in Kerala’s electoral landscape. While the party remains far from mounting a statewide challenge, its strategy of concentrating on select constituencies has begun turning traditional LDF-UDF contests into triangular battles, enough to make the BJP an increasingly important factor in Kerala politics.
Is BJP the 3rd wheel in LDF vs UDF?
For nearly four decades, Kerala’s elections followed a script so consistent it seemed almost structural. Every five years, power swung between the CPM-led Left Democratic Front (LDF) and the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF), turning the state into one of India’s most tightly sealed two-front political systems.In the 140-member assembly, contests were often decided by local equations and disciplined vote transfers, leaving little room for a third force to gain lasting ground.That political cycle snapped in 2021. Breaking with Kerala’s entrenched pattern of anti-incumbency, chief minister Pinarayi Vijayan returned to power with a commanding mandate, leading the LDF to 99 seats while the UDF was pushed down to 41. The verdict was read not just as an endorsement of governance during crisis years, but as proof of how firmly the two-front structure continued to dominate Kerala politics.Yet, beneath that binary, the BJP has been trying to build a quieter political foothold. Far from the sweeping breakthroughs it has delivered elsewhere, the party’s Kerala project has been incremental, focused less on immediate power and more on deepening vote share in a handful of constituencies, expanding organisational networks and positioning itself as a disruptive third pole in contests traditionally controlled by the LDF and the UDF.
The quiet rise of the BJP
The BJP’s expansion in Kerala is beginning to move beyond symbolism. A party that struggled for decades to gain a foothold in the state’s entrenched LDF-UDF political structure has, over the last few election cycles, started registering measurable gains in both vote share and representation.The turning point came in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, when the BJP won its first-ever parliamentary seat in Kerala through actor-turned-politician Suresh Gopi’s victory in Thrissur. Alongside the seat win, the NDA increased its vote share in the state to 19.24 per cent, up from 15.64 per cent in 2019, indicating that the party’s support base had expanded beyond isolated pockets.The gains stand in contrast to the CPM’s declining presence in parliamentary elections. The party, which won 12 Lok Sabha seats from Kerala in 2004, saw its tally fall to four in 2009 and five in 2014, before being reduced to one seat in both 2019 and 2024. While the Left has retained its dominance in Assembly politics, the Lok Sabha results reflected a gradual weakening of its national-level electoral influence in the state.The BJP’s rise has also become more visible in local body elections, often viewed as an indicator of organisational strength ahead of Assembly polls. In Thiruvananthapuram, the BJP-led NDA ended the CPM’s three-decade control of the city corporation, emerging as the single-largest front with 50 of the 100 wards. The result marked one of the BJP’s most significant urban gains in Kerala and signalled a shift in contests that have traditionally remained bipolar.The party’s strategy has focused on expanding its presence constituency by constituency rather than attempting a statewide breakthrough. Its gains have been concentrated in urban centres and Hindu-majority regions, while the BJP has also attempted outreach towards sections of the Christian community in central Kerala.Demographically, Hindus make up 54.73 per cent of Kerala’s population, while Muslims account for 26.56 per cent and Christians 18.38 per cent. The BJP’s growth in parts of the state has added pressure on the Left, particularly in Hindu-majority constituencies where triangular contests are beginning to affect traditional LDF-UDF vote equations.
Which seats BJP is eyeing
The BJP’s Kerala strategy is no longer centred on chasing a statewide breakthrough. Instead, the party is concentrating resources on a handful of constituencies where it believes organisational growth, demographic advantage and recent electoral gains can be converted into winnable contests.At the centre of that strategy are districts such as Thiruvananthapuram, Palakkad, Thrissur, Kasargod and parts of Pathanamthitta — regions where the BJP has either built a visible grassroots presence or sees scope for social consolidation.In Thiruvananthapuram, the BJP’s confidence stems from its growing urban footprint. The party-led NDA wrested control of the city corporation in 2025, ending the CPM’s decades-long dominance in the capital. The result gave the BJP a significant administrative and organisational base in a district where it has consistently improved its vote share over successive elections.Palakkad has emerged as another key focus area. The BJP first made inroads there in 2015, when it secured a municipal chairperson post for the first time in Kerala’s history — a feat it repeated in 2020 and 2025. Over the years, the constituency has shifted from a conventional LDF-UDF contest into a competitive three-cornered fight.The Palakkad assembly seat is now considered one of the most closely watched contests. Known as the “gateway to Kerala”, the constituency’s urban-rural mix and proximity to the Tamil Nadu border have made it politically distinct from much of the state. The BJP sees Palakkad as one of the few constituencies where its cadre network, municipal presence and expanding vote base could translate into an assembly victory.
The party has fielded senior NDA leader Sobha Surendran, who had earlier emerged as a strong challenger in the constituency during the 2016 assembly polls and the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. Her campaign has focused heavily on infrastructure and urban development, themes the BJP believes resonate in Palakkad’s increasingly urban electorate.Thrissur remains central to the BJP’s Kerala calculations after Suresh Gopi’s Lok Sabha victory in 2024 gave the party its first parliamentary seat in the state. The win reinforced the BJP’s belief that concentrated campaigns in socially mixed urban constituencies can yield results even within Kerala’s bipolar political structure.In Kasargod, the BJP is banking on support from Kannada-speaking voters and its organisational proximity to coastal Karnataka, where the party has traditionally been stronger. Pathanamthitta, meanwhile, remains politically sensitive because of the Sabarimala issue, with the BJP continuing to view the district as fertile ground for Hindu consolidation politics.Rather than spreading itself thin across all 140 assembly constituencies, the BJP’s approach reflects a more targeted calculation — deepen influence in a limited number of seats, create triangular contests and gradually build durable regional strongholds.
